In 2015, the Houston Astros were a surprise playoff team, as the Royals were in 2014, but was it a fluke? Lots of analysts and fans thought the same for KC in 2015, but obviously they were wrong. After adding even more talent during the offseason, the Astros could actually run away with the division in 2016. Like Kansas City, Houston has been building this young superior team for years in the shadows, then suddenly emerged as an elite team. The Astros, some would argue, play in a tougher division than KC, so running away with the division in 2016 would be unlikely; but remember, KC was expected to win no more than 77 games following their Cinderella season in 14’, however, they ended up winning the AL Central by 12 games last year. The Astros are only going to get better, as they are one of the youngest squads in the league.
Firstly, the Astros may have the best pitching not just in their division, but the AL. Unlike the NL, the American League champion doesn’t need to have a lethal rotation, or even an ace, as KC has proven that. Houston has the reigning AL CY Young Award winner, and their #2, Colin McHugh won 19 games in over 200 innings during his 2015 campaign. Behind them, Lance McCullers showed poise at 22-years-old holding KC to 2 runs during his playoff start. During the offseason, Houston swooped up veteran Doug Fister to anchor the back end of the rotation. Houston’s biggest competition is Texas. The Rangers’ ace, Cole Hamels, has numbers that spell out overrated, a #2 in Yu Darvish, who is out for 2 more months in recovery of Tommy John surgery, Derrick Holland hasn’t pitched more than 47 innings since 2013, and Colby Lewis is inconsistent (10-14 in 2014, 17-9 in 2015). The Mariners have old reliable in Felix Hernandez atop the rotation, then Iwakuma behind him, who had his worst campaign in his career in 2015. After those two, there is talent with question marks. The A’s and Angels have lots of pitchers to chose from, but their rotation is shaken up multiple times. The Astros rotation can certainly be challenged, but when it comes to the pen, no other team in the division can compete.
Despite Houston’s bullpen being ranked 6th during the regular season, KC hit it pretty hard during the ALDS last year. So, after re-signing Tony Sipp, they made one more big move to improve the pen by trading for 100 mph thrower from Philly, Ken Giles. The combination of Luke Gregorson, Ton Sipp, Ken Giles, Pat Neshek, and Will Harris, puts teams like Texas to shame. The Rangers have a legitimate closer in Shawn Tolleson (saved 37 in 15’) and good set up man in lefty Jake Diekman, but nothing else. The same goes for the Halos and M’s, good closer and set up man, but no one else noteworthy. The A’s are the only AL West squad who has a great bullpen on paper, but they don’t have a solid rotation however. In order to get to the pen and close out the game, the offense needs to come through.
In the offense department, the Astros have strong competition with the Rangers, while the three other squads are second tier. The AL is about power, and Houston led it with the most homers in 2015. The emergence of the reigning AL ROTY, Carlos Correa, lifted Houston to another level when he was brought up from triple A last year. George Springer was a crucial bat atop the Astros’ lineup, but only managed to play in 102 games, so contingent on his health for 140+ games in 2016, the offense will be even better. Now having Carlos Gomez for a full season, it will allow for Houston to create a lethal platoon combination in left field with Jake Marisnik and Colby Rasmus. Finally, at mid-point or maybe earlier, the Astros could add even more pop, as the club’s top 2 prospects Alex Bregman and A.J. Reed could be brought up to play first and third base, respectively (combined slugging of over .500). The Rangers are the only team in that division who could produce possibly more runs than Houston, as Prince Fielder, Ian Desmond, and Adrian Beltre are just the headliners. However, Houston may have more depth on the bench than any other AL West team, which is not including the major-league ready prospects down in the farm system By the way. Overall, Houston is among the best in the AL in the two categories it takes to win the pennant; bullpen and raw power. Unless Trout can lead the Halos to 88+ wins somehow, the Mariners’ young arms in the rotation come up big, the A’s do what they do and scratch and paw their way to the postseason, or Jeff Banister is a magician with his bullpen in Texas, the Houston Astros could easily win the AL West by 10+ games.
