When the reports first came out at the Winter Meetings that the D-backs had traded for Shelby Miller, Arizona fans were thrilled, as their team just acquired the #2 man behind Greinke. However, hours later, the official details of deal came out, and who it involved made it possibly the biggest blockbuster trade of the offseason. In exchange for Miller and a relief prospect, the Braves received #1 prospect, Dansby Swanson, .303 hitter Ender Inciarte, and #40 prospect Aaron Blair. This trade states that the snakes are going for it all in 2016 and 2017, while Atlanta still has a ways to go in the rebuilding process. But, this move is extremely risky for both franchises.
Before the Braves traded away shortstop, Andrelton Simmons, earlier in the offseason, Atlanta’s roster didn’t look that far away from competing, but now that both Simmons and Miller are gone, it seems that the new stadium will not feature a championship team in 2017. With Freddie Freeman, Simmons, Markakis, Hector Olivera, Julio Teheran, and Shelby Miller all locked up for a while, the Braves certainly looked good on paper, but clearly the front office wasn’t confident with that roster. Dansby Swanson is the #1 ranked prospect in the league, and is a promising young shortstop, but sometimes young studs just don’t work out. The same goes for pitcher Aaron Blair, who is also ranked highly. The closest player in this deal to for sure positively impact the future Braves is Ender Inciarte. The former D-backs outfielder finished 5th in the NL ROTY voting in 2014, then went on to hit .303, while stealing 21 bases and showing power with a .408 slugging percentage in 2015. Miller may have underperformed in 2015 for the Braves (led the league in losses), but from what was seen in St Louis, Shelby has all the makings to be an ace. That potential is what Arizona saw when they acquired him, but attempting to see Shelby’s possible bright future might have caused them to blindly give up two of baseball’s top youngsters, along with a vital part of one of the most underrated outfields in the game today.
Now that Greinke is officially a D-back, he will need some backup below him in that rotation. The front office clearly believes that Miller can be a lethal right-hand man to Zack. It was in 2013 when Miller made his mark in the majors, as he went 15-9 with a 3.06 ERA finishing 3rd in the NL ROTY voting. The next year he went 10-9, as he couldn’t quite reach that ace level the Cards hoped for, so they traded him for Jason Heyward at the season’s end. But, in 2015, despite leading the NL in losses, he had a quality start percentage of 65%, which was 24% higher than his 2013 campaign. He also pitched over 200 innings for his first time in his career, while he had two complete game shutouts during this previous year with Atlanta. He may end up being a franchise starter for the D-backs, but with the small sample size of ace material thus far, it is not enough to give up an abundance of talent for. Even with Nick Ahmed flashing gold glove type leather at short, Dansby Swanson is a future all-star shortstop, and the D-backs may look back on this trade in a negative perspective. If it was only Swansby given up, the trade may have turned out ok, but giving up a huge pitching prospect on a team like Arizona who needs as much pitching as they can get, along with a star outfielder, is not even worth it if the D-backs got a guy like Matt Harvey.
This blockbuster trade may fit the plans of each team well, but the effects of it won’t be determined until far into the 2016 campaign. There is a winner and loser to all transactions between 2 or more franchises, and the loser in this one who will be hurting. Because the Braves got more in return, long term they may win the trade, but if Miller can live up to ace potential, the D-backs could win the trade in 2016 by winning the NL or the Fall Classic.
